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+Network Working Group                                     Poorer Richard
+Request for Comments: 1216                             Almanac Institute
+                                                           Prof. Kynikos
+                                                   Miskatonic University
+                                                            1 April 1991
+
+
+             Gigabit Network Economics and Paradigm Shifts
+
+Status of this Memo
+
+   This memo proposes a new standard paradigm for the Internet
+   Activities Board (IAB) standardization track.  Distribution of this
+   memo is unlimited.
+
+1. Introduction
+
+   The history of computer communication contains many examples of
+   efforts to align the capabilities of processors to that of
+   communication media.  Packet switching is the classic case of a
+   careful tradeoff between the costs of memory, processing, and
+   communications bandwidth.
+
+   With all of the attention and publicity focused on gigabit networks,
+   not much notice has been given to small and largely unfunded research
+   efforts which are studying innovative approaches for dealing with
+   technical issues within the constraints of economic science.  This
+   memo defines one such paradigm.
+
+2. Contemporary Network Economics
+
+   Recent cost estimates predict a continuing decline in the cost for
+   processing, memory, and communication.  One recent projection put the
+   decline for $/bit and $/MIP at 99% per decade and put the decline for
+   $/bps at 90% per decade.  Scalable parallel processor designs may
+   accelerate the cost declines for CPU and memory, but no similar
+   accelerated decline should be expected in the cost of communications.
+   Such a decline would imply eventual declines in the cost of 56Kbps
+   service used for voice, resulting in a negative rate of return for
+   telecommunications carriers, an unlikely eventuality even if free-
+   market forces are carried to their logical extreme.
+
+   Increases in processing power create additional demand for
+   communications bandwidth, but do nothing to pay for it.  While we
+   will sell no paradigm before its time, the 9% difference,
+   particularly after compounding is taken into account, will bankrupt
+   the internet community unless a paradigm shift takes place.
+
+
+
+
+Richard & Kynikos                                               [Page 1]
+
+RFC 1216     Gigabit Network Economics and Paradigm Shifts    April 1991
+
+
+3. The ULS Paradigm Shift
+
+   The ULS paradigm shift breaks the downward spiral by concentrating on
+   end-to-end datagrams and virtual circuit services operating in the
+   .01 uGbps region, namely Ultra Low Speed networking.
+
+   However,
+
+   "The worlds best technological paradigm shifts are useless unless
+   they (a) are economically viable, (b) have clear applicability, (c)
+   are technically feasible."
+
+           --Milton John in "Paradigms Lost"
+
+3.1 Economic Viability
+
+   Cost projections indicate that individual ULS circuits can be
+   provided at a cost of <$.03/month due to the unusually high
+   multiplexing that will be possible on Gbit links.  The 10 THz
+   bandwidth of existing optical fibers will be able to support on the
+   order of 1 TUser, handling population growth, and even internet
+   growth, for some time.  Moreover, if $.03/month is a significant
+   barrier to entry, substantial discounts appear to be economically
+   feasible.
+
+3.2 Clear Applicability
+
+   A fundamental principle of networking is that network speed must
+   match the application.  We have identified a number of critical
+   applications that are matched to ULS technology.  Below we itemize a
+   few of these, but we provide a brief description for only the first;
+   the match for the others should be equally obvious.
+
+   - Low priority facsimile: A large percentage of documents and letters
+     are sent via facsimile not because they need sub-minute delivery,
+     but because they carry signatures or graphics.  In these cases, a
+     three-hour delivery (comparable to the value reliably achieved on
+     many of today's packet-based email systems) is sufficient.  With
+     proper compression, this delivery time can be achieved over a
+     ULSnet.
+
+   - Real time data (e.g., tracking glaciers)
+
+   - US postal service
+
+   - Contracting for research
+
+   To be truly viable, ULS networking must scale, and indeed it does.
+
+
+
+Richard & Kynikos                                               [Page 2]
+
+RFC 1216     Gigabit Network Economics and Paradigm Shifts    April 1991
+
+
+   With some effort, we envision extending the technology to the
+   extremely-low-speed regime.  Applications that scale from the ULS
+   applications above are:
+
+   - Real time data (e.g., gravity wave detectors)
+   - Italian postal service
+   - Congressional budget process
+
+3.3 Technical Feasibility
+
+   The hardware issues are well in hand.  The remaining issues are
+   protocol related.  To examine them, we must extrapolate backward from
+   some well known networking principles.
+
+   "Gigabit networks require new protocols."
+
+   The clear inference here is that ULS will require old protocols, so
+   as we recede into the future, we should expect the following:
+
+   ULS will require minimal development.  Although we may need research
+   in storage technology to recover the software from old media such as
+   decayed magnetic dump tapes, paper tape, and partially recycled card
+   decks, this effort will be more than offset by the savings.
+
+   ULS protocols will be well documented, amenable to verification, and
+   suitable for MSI implementation in Silicon, or even Germanium or
+   relays.  In particular, the alternating bit protocol [1] is a leading
+   contender.
+
+   "Bad news travel fast."
+
+   Therefore, ULS gives preferential treatment to good news.  While this
+   will delay the delivery of bills, notices from timeshare
+   condominiums, and contest announcements, it will also produce
+   immediate productivity gains on several mailing lists.
+
+3.4 Problems Requiring Work
+
+   ULS is not without problems.
+
+   Some other well-known protocol suites are well ahead of ULS in
+   exploring the desired performance operating point.  We note our
+   concern about the dearth of domestic (U.S.-based) research and
+   development in this important area.  This is particularly disturbing
+   in light of the level of work now underway in other countries.
+
+   Efficiency is a problem:
+
+
+
+
+Richard & Kynikos                                               [Page 3]
+
+RFC 1216     Gigabit Network Economics and Paradigm Shifts    April 1991
+
+
+   - All ULS protocols incorporate slow-start.
+
+   - Lower data rates mean fewer errors.
+
+   - Whereas modern protocols use 32 bit sequence numbers,
+     acknowledgment fields, etc., ULS headers can be quite small (1 bit
+     sequence numbers for the alternating-bit protocol).  Thus the
+     header/data ratio shrinks.
+
+   The net result is "creeping efficiency" which tends to push us away
+   from the proper ULS operating point.  While we have no definitive
+   solution, there are several promising palliatives:
+
+   - Forward Error Insertion (FEI)
+
+   - Negative window scaling factors
+
+   - New protocol layers
+
+   - Multiple presentation layers
+
+4. Conclusions
+
+   The road to Ultra Low Speed (ULS) technology is long, slow, and easy.
+
+REFERENCES and BIBLIOGRAPHY
+
+   [1] Lynch, W. "Reliable full-duplex file transmission over half-
+       duplex telephone lines", CACM, pp. 407-410, June 1968.
+
+Security Considerations
+
+       Security issues are not discussed in this memo.
+
+Authors' Addresses
+
+       Dr. Poorer Richard
+       Almanac Institute
+       Center against Misoneoism
+       Campo Imperatore, Italy
+       EMail:  none
+
+
+       Prof. Kynikos
+       Miskatonic University
+       Arkham, MA.
+       Email: Kynikos@Cthulu.Miskatonic.EDU
+
+
+
+
+Richard & Kynikos                                               [Page 4]
+
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